2024 Predictions From a Watch Industry-Specific GPT Chatbot
Main image source: AI (of course!)
Additional content note: The Real Time Show crew discussed these predictions in not one, but two analysis episodes!
Disclaimer: Any links provided are for additional context or information only. Unless otherwise noted, I receive no compensation for providing these links, and linking to each respective destination does not imply endorsement. For this article in particular, I should mention that apparently ChatGPT will roll out a way to let creators monetize their GPTs, but at the moment I receive nothing for the use of the one I created.
Even if you haven’t been following the drama happening in the ChatGPT boardroom, you still know about ChatGPT, the AI that seems to have risen to the top of the name-recognition pile in these early days of the technology.
I know some have expressed skepticism over how much this new tech will really change things while others have called for a total ban on it due to its destructive potential, but I for one am just really fascinated by it at the moment.
One of the more intriguing features ChatGPT is rolling out is “GPTs’’, along with an associated store, where people can create their own chatbots, essentially AI “apps” trained to do one thing in particular.
I thought it would be interesting to create a GPT that enables watch sellers to create better sales listings, of course with the goal of maximizing their sales revenues, and one of the factors I baked in was timing. In other words, if you have the option of waiting, “is now the best time to sell, based on industry or macro-specific factors?”
Since we’re at the end of the year, trend predictions for the upcoming one are always popular, so I thought: “why not give the GPT a shot”?
Without further delay, here are its thoughts (anything in bolded italics is what I asked the GPT, and I’ll note that unless I indicate otherwise, I’m providing you, word-for-word, the GPT’s answers):
General 2024 industry predictions:
Based on the extensive information from the documents provided and current market trends, I can offer some informed predictions for the watch industry in 2024:
Stabilizing luxury market: The luxury watch market, especially in the high-end segment, is likely to stabilize in 2024. Brands like Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet may see a steadying of prices, following the fluctuations observed in recent years.
Growth in emerging markets: Markets such as India and other parts of Asia could experience significant growth. Brands are likely to focus more on these regions, considering their growing economies and increasing consumer interest in luxury watches.
Sustainability and ethical sourcing: A continued emphasis on sustainability and ethical sourcing of materials is expected. Consumers are increasingly aware of environmental issues and the luxury market is responding with more sustainable production practices and materials.
Smartwatch integration: The integration of smart technologies in traditional watchmaking might gain further momentum. This could involve more collaborations between tech companies and established watch brands.
Independent brands rise: Independent and smaller watch brands might gain a larger market share due to their unique designs and limited production runs, appealing to collectors and enthusiasts seeking exclusivity.
Digital and omnichannel sales: The use of digital platforms for sales and marketing will continue to grow. Brands may further develop their online presence and direct-to-consumer channels, while still maintaining a strong physical retail experience.
Vintage and pre-owned market: The market for vintage and pre-owned watches is expected to remain robust. Collectors and enthusiasts show a sustained interest in rare and historical pieces, which could drive up prices for certain models.
Customization and personalization: An increase in customization and personalization options might be observed, as consumers seek unique pieces that stand out.
Swiss watch exports: Swiss watch exports are likely to continue their growth trajectory, though this might be at a more moderate pace compared to the high growth rates seen in the past few years.
Impact of global economic trends: The overall economic climate, including factors like inflation, currency fluctuations, and geopolitical events, will inevitably impact the luxury watch market. Brands might adjust their strategies accordingly to navigate these challenges.
These predictions are based on current market trends and available data. The actual future of the watch industry may be influenced by various unforeseen factors and developments.
Notes from David: Overall, these aren’t bad.
A little generic, but still relatively on the mark I’d say.
To make things a little more interesting, I then asked the GPT some very pointed questions on continuations of narratives that started in 2023.
On what may come after the “MoonSwatch” and “Thrifty Fathoms”:
Keeping in mind the Swatch "collaborations" with Omega and then Blancpain more recently, do you have any predictions for what Swatch Group brand might be next, perhaps in 2024?
When considering future collaborations within the Swatch Group, it's important to look at the patterns and successes of their past collaborations. The Omega × Swatch "MoonSwatch" and the Blancpain × Swatch "Scuba Fifty Fathoms" were both significant and well-received.
These collaborations took iconic models from prestigious brands (Omega and Blancpain) and reinterpreted them in a more accessible form through Swatch's expertise in mass-market watch production.
Image source: www.swatch.com
Given this strategy, it's plausible to predict that Swatch Group might select another one of its prestigious brands for a similar collaboration. Key considerations would include:
Brand prestige and iconic models: Swatch Group might choose a brand that has a distinct, iconic watch model, similar to Omega's Speedmaster (Moonwatch) and Blancpain's Fifty Fathoms. The brand would ideally have a rich history and a strong identity.
Market trends and consumer demand: Trends in the watch industry, such as a resurgence in vintage styles or a growing demand for certain types of watches (like dive watches or chronographs), could influence the choice.
Strategic brand positioning: The collaboration would need to align with the broader strategic goals of the Swatch Group, possibly aiming to tap into new market segments or to rejuvenate interest in a particular brand.
Given these factors, some potential candidates for a 2024 collaboration could be:
Breguet: Known for its historically significant and technically sophisticated timepieces. A collaboration could focus on making an exclusive Breguet design more accessible.
Glashütte Original: With its strong heritage in German watchmaking, a collaboration might involve a reinterpretation of one of its classic designs.
Jaquet Droz: Known for its artistic and elaborate designs, a collaboration could bring a unique aesthetic to a wider audience.
Longines: Given its history and extensive catalog, there could be potential for a unique collaboration, possibly focusing on heritage and elegance.
However, these predictions should be taken with caution, as the Swatch Group's decisions will depend on various strategic considerations including market dynamics, brand strategies, and consumer preferences at the time.
Ok, so if you had to pick one brand and one model, which would it be (no pressure...)?
Predicting the exact brand and model for a potential Swatch Group collaboration involves a bit of speculation, but based on the patterns of previous collaborations and the strengths of the Swatch Group's portfolio, a compelling choice might be:
Brand: Longines
Reasoning: Longines, a brand with a rich history and a wide array of both dress and sports watches, has a strong heritage appeal. Its reputation for elegant designs at relatively accessible price points makes it a suitable candidate for a collaboration that aims to bring luxury design to a wider audience.
Model: Longines Legend Diver
Why this model: The Legend Diver is a reissue of a 1960s dive watch and has been quite popular since its reintroduction. It's known for its vintage aesthetic and superb build quality. A Swatch collaboration could focus on reinterpreting this iconic diver's watch with modern, innovative materials and a more accessible price point, similar to how the MoonSwatch and the Scuba Fifty Fathoms were conceptualized.
This choice aligns with current trends favoring vintage and dive watches and leverages Longines' well-established reputation in these areas. However, it's important to note that Swatch Group's strategic decisions will depend on various factors, including market trends at the time, brand positioning, and overall business strategy.
Notes from David: This is actually not a terrible choice, and coincidentally (I think…) it wasn’t long after I ran this that Longines announced the new 39 mm Longines Legend Diver.
On the acquisition of Bucherer by Rolex:
Any thoughts on potential repercussions of the Rolex acquisition of Bucherer? Are there any brands in particular you think might be more or less affected?
The acquisition of Bucherer by Rolex has several implications for the watch industry, particularly due to the stature and influence of both companies in the luxury watch market. Here are some potential repercussions and the brands that might be more or less affected:
Increased market presence for Rolex: By acquiring Bucherer, one of the world's largest watch retailers, Rolex may increase its market presence. This move could lead to Rolex watches being more prominently featured in Bucherer stores, potentially at the expense of other brands that Bucherer carries.
Changes in retail strategy: Rolex could leverage Bucherer's extensive retail network to modify its distribution strategy, possibly prioritizing its own brand over others. This could affect brands that compete directly with Rolex, especially those in the same price range and market segment.
Shift in luxury watch retail dynamics: Other luxury watch brands currently retailed by Bucherer might experience changes in terms of shelf space and promotional priorities. Brands like Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Omega, which often share the luxury watch market space with Rolex, might need to reassess their retail strategies.
Impact on smaller and independent brands: Smaller or independent watch brands carried by Bucherer might face challenges if the focus shifts more towards Rolex. These brands could potentially lose significant visibility and sales opportunities within Bucherer's retail spaces.
Potential for enhanced customer experiences: Rolex might leverage Bucherer’s expertise in luxury retail to enhance customer experiences. This could set a new standard in luxury watch retailing, prompting other brands to innovate in their customer engagement and retail strategies.
Rolex's sister company Tudor: Tudor, being Rolex’s sister company, could also benefit from this acquisition. It might enjoy enhanced visibility and distribution through Bucherer's network.
Possible market consolidation: This acquisition might signal a trend towards consolidation in the luxury watch market, with major brands seeking more control over their retail channels. This could lead to other brands considering similar moves to strengthen their market positions.
Implications for online and omnichannel retail: The acquisition may influence Rolex's approach to online and omnichannel retail strategies, areas where Bucherer has made significant strides. This could affect brands that are heavily invested in digital retail platforms.
Image source: www.passion-horlogere.com
In summary, the most directly affected brands will likely be those that compete closely with Rolex in terms of market segment and price point, as well as smaller brands that might lose visibility in Bucherer stores. The acquisition could also drive broader changes in luxury watch retailing strategies across the industry.
Notes from David: I’m particularly intrigued by the suggestion that the acquisition could signal an even more upscale customer experience, totally uniform across all stores around the world (more on that below…)
Any “dark horse” predictions (unlikely but still possible), preferably featuring Rolex?
Certainly!
Dark horse predictions often involve unexpected turns or surprising trends that, while not the most likely, are still within the realm of possibility. Focusing on Rolex, a brand known for its consistency and predictability, here are a few intriguing "dark horse" predictions for 2024:
Image source: www.rolex.com
Rolex entering the smartwatch market: While it seems unlikely given Rolex's traditional stance, a bold move into the smartwatch segment could be a game-changer. Imagine a Rolex smartwatch that marries their iconic design with cutting-edge technology. This would create a stir in both the luxury and tech markets.
Collaborations with high-profile tech brands: Rolex could surprise everyone by collaborating with a major tech company like Apple or Samsung to create a hybrid watch. This would blend Rolex’s timeless elegance with advanced tech features, appealing to a younger, tech-savvy audience.
Retro-revival of discontinued models: Rolex might bring back a discontinued or vintage model, updated with modern materials and technology. Think along the lines of a revamped Rolex Submariner 6538 (the original Bond watch) or a reimagined Rolex Moonphase from the 1950s.
Rolex venturing into new materials: Known for their conservative approach to design and material, a dark horse prediction could see Rolex experimenting with unconventional materials like titanium, carbon fiber, or even recycled materials, aligning with a growing demand for sustainability.
Launch of a subscription or rental service: In an unexpected twist, Rolex might explore a subscription or rental service for their watches. This would be a radical shift from their traditional sales model but could tap into a new market segment that prefers flexibility over ownership.
Rolex embracing cryptocurrency: With the increasing normalization of cryptocurrency, Rolex could start accepting Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies as a payment method, appealing to a digitally-forward and financially-diversified clientele.
Introduction of an entry-level line: Rolex could introduce an entry-level line of watches, positioned slightly below their current offerings. This would be a strategy to capture a broader market, especially targeting young professionals.
Rolex's foray into experiential marketing: Rolex could venture into creating exclusive, branded experiences, like a Rolex-themed luxury resort or a series of high-end, watch-themed events around the world, offering a new way to engage with the brand beyond just watch ownership.
Unusual brand partnerships: Rolex could surprise everyone by partnering with brands outside the luxury segment, such as a sports equipment manufacturer or an automotive brand, to create limited edition, themed watches.
Rolex as a digital asset: Diving into the world of digital collectibles, Rolex might release digital versions of their most iconic watches as NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens), combining the worlds of luxury watches and digital art.
Notes from David: Yea…these are all bullshit.
To be fair, I did ask for predictions about things that could come out of nowhere, but I guess I have some more training to provide before the GPT realizes just how conservative Rolex is.
To have a more realistic answer, I asked the GPT one more set of questions.
I like the creativity, but these are a little too "out there"; Rolex is just really, really conservative. I guess I was asking more about two areas specifically: the availability of Rolex watches in actual dealer displays (rather than the gray market) and the moves Rolex might make in the wake of its Bucherer acquisition. What do you think?
Given Rolex's conservative nature and your specific areas of interest, let's reevaluate the "dark horse" predictions focusing on the availability of Rolex watches at dealers and the implications of its Bucherer acquisition:
Increased availability at authorized dealers: In a surprising shift, Rolex could decide to increase the availability of their watches at authorized dealers. This would counter the current trend where many popular models are nearly impossible to find at retail prices in stores. This change could be driven by a desire to regain control over the market and reduce dependence on the grey market. It's a move that would delight many customers who are currently frustrated by long wait lists and inflated gray market prices.
Rolex launching exclusive Bucherer editions: Following the acquisition of Bucherer, Rolex might introduce exclusive Bucherer Editions of their most popular models. These editions could feature unique design elements or special engravings, available only through Bucherer boutiques. This would create a new level of exclusivity and draw customers directly to Bucherer stores.
Rolex introducing a Direct-to-Consumer model through Bucherer: Rolex could leverage Bucherer's retail network to pilot a direct-to-consumer sales model. This would be a significant departure from their traditional sales approach and could offer a more controlled distribution, allowing Rolex to manage supply and demand more effectively.
Bespoke Rolex services through Bucherer: Rolex might introduce bespoke or customization services exclusively through Bucherer. This could range from personalized engravings to selecting unique dial colors or bracelet options. While Rolex has historically been resistant to customization, offering it through a controlled channel like Bucherer might be a way to test the waters.
Rolex expanding their product line exclusively in Bucherer stores: Rolex could expand their product line with new models or variations, exclusively available at Bucherer stores. This would drive traffic to Bucherer and create a unique shopping experience for Rolex enthusiasts.
Special after-sales services or loyalty programs: With the acquisition, Rolex might offer special after-sales services or loyalty programs through Bucherer, like extended warranties, first-access to new models, or invitation-only events. This would enhance the value proposition of purchasing from an authorized dealer.
Bucherer as a platform for vintage and pre-owned Rolex watches: Rolex could use Bucherer to officially enter the pre-owned market, offering certified, pre-owned Rolex watches. This would be a way to control the quality and pricing of pre-owned Rolex watches and capture a segment of the market that is currently dominated by third-party dealers.
Interactive Rolex exhibits or museums within Bucherer stores: Rolex could establish interactive exhibits or mini-museums within select Bucherer stores, showcasing the brand's history and craftsmanship. This would not only be a draw for customers but also serve as an educational and brand-building tool.
Limited production runs for collector's editions: In a rare move, Rolex could release limited production runs of certain models specifically for Bucherer, catering to collectors and connoisseurs looking for something unique.
Exclusive online access to Rolex inventory through Bucherer: Rolex might provide exclusive online access to their inventory through Bucherer's digital platforms. Customers could view available models at Bucherer boutiques and reserve them online, blending the convenience of digital browsing with the assurance of purchasing from an authorized dealer.
These predictions are more aligned with Rolex's conservative approach and current market dynamics, focusing on enhancing the customer experience and leveraging the Bucherer acquisition without making radical changes to their core business model.
Notes from David: I realized after I typed this that I had asked it again for Bucherer predictions, and all I can say is that there is some juicy, juicy stuff here…
So, what did you think?
Please let me know in the comments or drop me a line via Instagram or The Real Time Show!
Also, if you want to play around with the GPT that generated these predictions, you can do so at this link.